Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4043…2bc7 other 24 markets active 6h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$11
crypto 9% +$14
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 67% -26.8%
≤30d 3 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 67% -26.8%
≤90d 3 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 67% -26.8%
all 3 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 67% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 67% -26.8%
10% -6.3% 67% -33.8%
15% -15.3% 67% -40.2%
20% -23.6% 67% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)3 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+19%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $33 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +59%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 5h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 41h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 41h
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 41h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 41h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $37 41h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 41h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 41h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 41h
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 41h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $42 41h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 41h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 43h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 43h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 43h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 43h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 43h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 43h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 44h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 2d
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $27 2d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 2d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.71 · official $850.74 (match) · 32 history records