Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4043…39ec sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$111 (-15%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$12
other 34% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +48.3% +34.2% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤30d 13 +48.3% +34.2% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 13 +48.3% +34.2% 46% 46% -20.7%
all 13 +48.3% +34.2% 46% 46% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.2% 46% -20.7%
10% +21.3% 46% -28.3%
15% +9.6% 23% -35.2%
20% -1.1% 23% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$30 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$89 +437%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $159 +$40 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$85 -93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +437%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$37 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $65 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 76¢ $69 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $56 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $49 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $199 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $9 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $9 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $81 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $78 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $86 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $186 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $82 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records