Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x4041…b2dd other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$7
other 34% +$2
politics 10% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +153.1% +129.0% 46% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 14 +135.1% +112.7% 43% 7% -8.4%
all 39 +49.8% +35.5% 49% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 8% -8.8%
10% +22.6% 5% -17.6%
15% +10.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -0.1% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.16 per $1 lost it wins $15.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage385d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $35 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $98 +$6 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Claudiu Târziu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 03 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $40 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $3 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $35 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records