Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4040…3742 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 34% +$1
crypto 11% +$1
politics 8% +$1
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 14% -10.7%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 8% -9.9%
all 46 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $37 −$2 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 09 $16 $0 -2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -2%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 07 $3 $0 -12%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 30 $19 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $15 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce U.S. purchasing crypto on Friday? Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 50m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $14 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $8 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $7 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $20 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $37 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $3 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $34 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $15 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $19 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 132 history records