Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x403f…94f1 other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$95 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day228.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$20
tech 19% −$45
sports 6% −$14
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -17.6%
≤30d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -17.6%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -17.6%
all 26 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover228.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 19% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 12% -25.5%
15% -31.9% 4% -32.7%
20% -38.6% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,614
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions38
Markets (closed)26 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day228.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $170 $210 +$40 (+23%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 29 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $116 $108 −$8 (-7%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $57 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 82¢ 68¢ $124 $102 −$22 (-18%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $68 $99 +$32 (+47%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 44¢ 61¢ $66 $91 +$26 (+39%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $117 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $63 $91 +$28 (+44%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $337.50 Week of June 29 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $82 $81 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 76¢ 77¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 Week of June 29 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+12%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+5%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 29 2026? No 26¢ 27¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-23%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $37 $31 −$6 (-15%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $94 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+34%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 29 2026? No 61¢ 74¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+23%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $40 $23 −$18 (-44%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $244 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 33¢ 62¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+86%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-33%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+33%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+29%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 26¢ 13¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 29 20 Jun 29 $87 −$6 -7%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 Jun 29 $76 −$33 -44%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $228 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $84 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $105 −$4 -4%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $138 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $36 −$19 -53%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $19 +$4 +24%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of June 29 2026 Jun 29 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $126 Week of June 29 Jun 29 $2 $0 +19%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $98 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $177 −$10 -6%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $96 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $204 −$30 -15%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 29 Jun 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $560 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $66 +$19 +29%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $82 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $32 +$14 +42%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $52 −$9 -18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $735 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 29 Jun 29 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 29 20 Jun 29 $149 −$21 -14%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 29 2 Jun 29 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 29 2026 Jun 29 $18 −$12 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 1m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of June 29 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $42 6m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 29 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 6m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 29 20 SELL No 81¢ $7 7m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 29 20 SELL No 51¢ $34 11m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 SELL No 5¢ $2 11m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $228 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 29¢ $14 11m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 28¢ $23 12m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 29 20 SELL No 44¢ $47 12m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 SELL No 41¢ $40 12m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 29 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 12m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $228 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 45¢ $44 12m
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $84 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 19¢ $7 12m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 73¢ $0 14m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 73¢ $0 14m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 14m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 73¢ $0 14m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 BUY No 46¢ $0 17m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 BUY No 46¢ $0 17m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 29 2026 BUY No 48¢ $28 17m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 22m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 24m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $138 Week of June 29 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 32m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of June 29 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $88 32m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1 32m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 34m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 2¢ $0 35m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of June 29 2026? SELL No 28¢ $23 37m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $138 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $36 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,614.16 · official $1,614.16 (match) · 228 history records