Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x403c…72a1 crypto 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,722 (+10%) realized +$9,750 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 119L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$2,232
sports 7% +$2,396
other 6% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -37.2%
≤30d 58 -41.5% -47.1% 24% 22% -27.5%
≤90d 94 -33.0% -39.4% 31% 29% -20.8%
all 207 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 36% -8.3%
10% -32.0% 29% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -38.5% 27% -25.1%
20% -44.6% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$253 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$9,750
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 184
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$555
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 34¢ $407 $379 −$28 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $3,118 −$3,088 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $407 −$407 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $426 −$426 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $87 −$70 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $189 −$261 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $280 −$257 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $190 −$186 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $220 +$280 +127%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $375 +$325 +87%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5,330 +$830 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $854 +$1,308 +153%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,373 −$845 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$202 +206%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 +$380 +317%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $350 +$650 +186%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $377 +$45 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 +$372 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$144 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $147 −$132 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $188 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $226 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $280 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $190 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $184 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 44¢ $220 38h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $14 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $5 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $80 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $0 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $275 47h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 92¢ $1,607 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 92¢ $3 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 80¢ $2,403 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 80¢ $397 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $1,203 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $381 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $546 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $1,357 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $1,786 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $57 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $18 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $19 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $22 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 27¢ $9 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 27¢ $4 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 27¢ $4 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 27¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.39 · official $379.50 (match) · 3500 history records