Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x403a…376c other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,548 (+12%) realized +$1,548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,859per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,138
7 days+$2,138
14 days+$2,071
30 days+$2,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$641
sports 13% +$1,430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 33% +5.5%
≤30d 7 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 29% +4.9%
≤90d 7 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 29% +4.9%
all 7 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 29% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 29% +4.9%
10% -34.2% 14% -5.2%
15% -40.6% 14% -14.3%
20% -46.4% 14% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$896 vs −$154 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,859
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7,127 +$1,009 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $566 −$199 -35%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $308 −$149 -48%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,534 +$1,630 +106%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,181 +$48 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$68 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,136 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,005 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $367 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $144 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $3,164 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,229 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records