Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
40 0x4038…0fd2 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$2
tech 29% +$5
world 9% +$1
politics 6% −$7
other 5% −$3
sports 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 83% 17% -11.1%
≤30d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 83% 17% -11.1%
≤90d 18 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 11% -9.5%
all 18 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 11% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 11% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage94d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $52 −$8 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +44%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10? May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9? May 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 9? May 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 19 $218 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? Apr 09 $66 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? Apr 09 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Apr 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Mar 28 $50 −$3 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $181 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 1h
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33d
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Dominik Palan 92¢ $10 33d
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi BUY Yusuke Takahashi 100¢ $20 33d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 33d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 33d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $218 73d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 73d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 73d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? SELL Yes 97¢ $253 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $255 73d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $181 73d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $179 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $66 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 85d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 85d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.45 · official $242.45 (match) · 78 history records