trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 83% | 17% | -11.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 83% | 17% | -11.1% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 72% | 11% | -9.5% |
| all | 18 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 72% | 11% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 11% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 11% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 6% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $180 | $180 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 86¢ | $40 | $40 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 84¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 95¢ | 91¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $130 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $52 | −$8 | -15% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 21 | $41 | +$1 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | +44% |
| Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura | Jun 21 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi | Jun 21 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | May 19 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 9? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | May 19 | $218 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? | Apr 09 | $66 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? | Apr 09 | $255 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? | Apr 09 | $5 | +$1 | +26% |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? | Mar 28 | $50 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? | Mar 28 | $18 | $0 | +1% |