Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4037…d7dd crypto 1766 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+3%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%1711W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$108
14 days−$104
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$5
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 -15.2% -23.3% 82% 1% -22.0%
≤30d 1155 -4.9% -14.0% 92% 1% -13.8%
≤90d 1829 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 1% -12.9%
all 1829 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 1% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 1% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 0% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1711 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1829 / 1766
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1829 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 3500 history records