Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x4031…92c8 sports 899 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,309 (-2%) realized −$6,234 · open +$925
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%437W / 460L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$2,809est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,808
7 days+$382
14 days+$174
30 days−$869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$7,383
other 5% −$233
world 1% +$756
politics 1% +$456
economics 0% −$20
culture 0% +$29
crypto 0% +$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 45% -8.3%
≤30d 246 -2.2% -11.6% 51% 49% -10.0%
≤90d 769 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 48% -11.6%
all 897 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -11.5%
10% -23.3% 43% -20.0%
15% -30.7% 39% -27.7%
20% -37.5% 31% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$205 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$2,149
Realized−$6,234
Unrealized+$925
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses437 / 460
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,809
Open positions2
Markets (closed)897 / 899
History coverage203d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 45¢ 100¢ $608 $1,349 +$742 (+122%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $616 $800 +$184 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 399 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,364 +$239 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $347 −$201 -58%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $161 +$39 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $563 +$137 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $603 +$137 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $179 −$176 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $135 −$132 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $563 −$560 -99%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $126 +$72 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $607 −$595 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $500 −$400 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $396 +$504 +127%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $820 +$180 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $391 +$309 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,092 −$315 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $640 −$640 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $532 +$5,658 +1064%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $348 +$142 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$150 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $960 −$960 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $655 +$344 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,330 −$634 -48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $681 −$674 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $511 +$657 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,027 +$140 +14%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $403 −$400 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $393 +$157 +40%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $270 +$730 +270%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $894 +$704 +79%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $376 +$224 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $537 +$212 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $216 −$216 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $428 +$322 +75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $390 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $422 −$414 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,297 −$650 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $600 +$898 +150%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $432 +$329 +76%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $275 −$274 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $387 +$320 +83%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $365 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $616 56m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $146 56m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $608 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $498 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $63 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $347 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $747 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $549 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $78 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $79 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $78 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,148.93 · official $2,148.93 (match) · 3390 history records