Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x402c…4e11 crypto 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$156 (-2%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%259W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$72
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -77.7% -79.9% 12% 0% -39.4%
≤30d 249 -14.4% -22.5% 57% 28% -13.7%
≤90d 343 -10.0% -18.6% 63% 37% -13.4%
all 428 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 33% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 33% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 19% -20.5%
15% -31.3% 9% -28.2%
20% -38.1% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses259 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 417
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -244%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1227%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$10 -6886%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $69 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $46 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 05 $43 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 05 $60 −$35 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $36 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $33 −$13 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records