Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
40 0x402b…a2d4 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$354 (-37%) realized −$354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$347
other 25% −$4
crypto 20% $0
economics 18% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -50.2% -54.9% 25% 0% -39.3%
all 8 -51.5% -56.1% 12% 0% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 0% -44.8%
10% -60.3% 0% -50.0%
15% -64.2% 0% -54.9%
20% -67.7% 0% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$50 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage111d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $61 −$59 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $190 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $190 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 08 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.84 · official $51.84 (match) · 16 history records