Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4029…8471 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-14%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$3
sports 12% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -48.0% -53.0% 33% 17% -44.3%
≤30d 8 -43.2% -48.6% 38% 25% -29.9%
≤90d 8 -43.2% -48.6% 38% 25% -29.9%
all 8 -43.2% -48.6% 38% 25% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 25% -29.9%
10% -53.5% 25% -36.6%
15% -58.0% 25% -42.7%
20% -62.1% 12% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +106%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 +$4 +42%
Japan leading at halftime? May 31 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $4 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $2 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 4d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3 6d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 9d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 11d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.92 · official $6.92 (match) · 16 history records