Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4029…05d3 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$230 (-33%) realized −$211 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$189
sports 8% −$20
other 7% $0
world 4% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 38% 38% -44.0%
≤30d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 38% 38% -44.0%
≤90d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 38% 38% -44.0%
all 13 -40.7% -46.4% 38% 38% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.4% 38% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -51.5% 38% -49.3%
15% -56.2% 23% -54.2%
20% -60.5% 15% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$41 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$19 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $88 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $49 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $77.41 · 52 history records