Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x4029…c8b3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$491 (-30%) realized −$304 · open −$187

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day27.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+36.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+50.9%	+36.5%	40%	40%	-56.2%
≤30d	10	+50.9%	+36.5%	40%	40%	-56.2%
≤90d	10	+50.9%	+36.5%	40%	40%	-56.2%
all	10	+50.9%	+36.5%	40%	40%	-56.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+36.5%	40%	-56.2%
10% ← realistic here	+23.5%	40%	-60.3%
15%	+11.5%	40%	-64.2%
20%	+0.6%	40%	-67.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$62 vs −$123 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$135

Realized−$304

Unrealized−$187

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions8

Markets (closed)10 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day27.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals	Yes	4¢	3¢	$50	$39	−$11 (-22%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals	Yes	4¢	4¢	$25	$26	+$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$20	$24	+$4 (+18%)
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals	Yes	5¢	5¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$19	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-7%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	47¢	0¢	$149	$0	−$148 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$41	+$61	+147%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	Jun 29	$62	−$60	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$17	+$14	+79%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$4	+$32	+786%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals	Jun 29	$48	−$48	-100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$147	+$143	+97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$540	−$530	-98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$47	−$46	-97%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	Jun 29	$50	−$49	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	30m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals	BUY	8¢	$40	49m
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals	BUY	8¢	$50	50m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists AND Netherlands v	BUY	6¢	$47	50m
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	1h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	4¢	$26	1h
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$102	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: France	BUY	2¢	$34	3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	3h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	11¢	$62	3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY	29¢	$150	3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$41	4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	28¢	$87	5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Brazil w	BUY	17¢	$49	6h
Raphinha: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	3¢	$47	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	48¢	$268	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$147	6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	47¢	$151	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	10¢	$48	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$185	6h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$17	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.29 · official $448.01 · 31 history records