Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x4027…30b9 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$376 (+4%) realized +$535 · open −$159
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 58L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days−$8
14 days−$766
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$665
other 10% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.6% -7.1% 38% 38% -10.4%
≤30d 41 -31.5% -38.1% 29% 29% -8.4%
≤90d 80 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 41% +0.7%
all 101 +14.7% +3.7% 43% 43% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 43% -2.8%
10% -6.2% 43% -12.1%
15% -15.2% 43% -20.6%
20% -23.6% 42% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$81 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$535
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 58
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage246d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Atlanta Dream 24¢ $163 $4 −$159 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $115 +$353 +307%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 24 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $127 −$127 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $95 +$136 +144%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$79 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $52 +$86 +165%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 +$257 +158%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 11 $142 −$142 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $241 +$238 +99%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $242 +$291 +120%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $161 +$104 +65%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $192 +$110 +57%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $100 +$92 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $127 +$210 +165%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury May 31 $95 −$5 -5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $56 +$39 +70%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings May 15 $45 +$65 +145%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$20 +197%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $68 +$134 +197%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $116 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $59 +$57 +97%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $86 +$224 +262%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $30 +$56 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 17¢ $97 54m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $68 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $468 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 24¢ $115 4h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 37¢ $125 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $231 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 40¢ $95 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $113 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $109 6d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 10¢ $116 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $138 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $52 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 11d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 21¢ $63 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $80 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $82 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $479 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $69 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $172 14d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Dallas Wings 39¢ $57 15d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Dallas Wings 39¢ $63 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $532 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $138 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $103 16d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $142 18d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $161 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.01 · official $4.01 (match) · 224 history records