Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4026…cb1b
sports · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage58d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 5 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $4 +$3 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -70%
76ers vs. Knicks May 31 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 +$1 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $1 $0 +20%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $5 −$2 -32%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1 +$1 +126%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1 +$1 +145%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 01 $3 −$2 -68%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $4 −$2 -37%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1 +$2 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 01 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -4%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 -0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $3 −$3 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$4
crypto 32% −$7
other 4% −$5
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 45m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 64¢ $2 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $1 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 5¢ $0 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 40h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 46¢ $1 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 42h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 79¢ $1 42h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $1 42h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 81¢ $1 43h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 95¢ $6 43h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 68¢ $1 43h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 35¢ $1 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 55¢ $1 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 62¢ $1 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 74¢ $1 45h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 61¢ $1 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.8% -28.3% 38% 31% -27.9%
≤30d 21 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 38% -18.9%
≤90d 75 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 39% -12.7%
all 75 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -12.7%
10% -23.7% 31% -21.1%
15% -31.1% 21% -28.7%
20% -37.8% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.46 · official $4.46 (match) · 281 history records