Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4023…5746
sports · 649 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,510 -72%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,496 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93
Realized−$1,496
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses139 / 771
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions74
Markets (closed)910 / 649
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1162.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 74 History 910 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,331
7 days−$1,496
14 days−$1,496
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? No 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 58¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 79¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will América FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $1 +$1 +125%
ITF Sumter: Whitney Osuigwe vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -103%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -102%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -102%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -102%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -114%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -103%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -108%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -108%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -92%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -104%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 165.5 Jun 13 $1 −$4 -351%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -104%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Valencia (-5.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -116%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -108%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 161.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 −$2 -198%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$6 -549%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$177
other 8% −$18
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 3m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 75¢ $1 3m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 6m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 76¢ $1 6m
Spread: CD Cobresal (-1.5) BUY CSD Colo-Colo 100¢ $1 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $1 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 8m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 64¢ $1 8m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 72¢ $1 8m
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL No 63¢ $1 8m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $1 9m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $2 9m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 11m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $1 11m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $1 12m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 12m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $1 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 41¢ $3 12m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $1 16m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 16m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 16m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 16m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 16m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 16m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 6¢ $0 29m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $1 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $1 59m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 27¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 910 -44.7% -50.0% 15% 9% -53.3%
≤30d 910 -44.7% -50.0% 15% 9% -53.3%
≤90d 910 -44.7% -50.0% 15% 9% -53.3%
all 910 -44.7% -50.0% 15% 9% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1162.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.0% 9% -53.3%
10% ← realistic here -54.7% 6% -57.8%
15% -59.1% 4% -61.8%
20% -63.1% 3% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.27 · official $93.27 (match) · 3500 history records