Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4023…4b81 sports 350 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%114W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$48
other 4% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -4.8% -13.9% 29% 29% -14.4%
≤30d 215 -4.8% -13.9% 29% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 215 -4.8% -13.9% 29% 29% -14.4%
all 335 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 33% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 33% -12.8%
10% -20.3% 32% -21.1%
15% -28.0% 30% -28.7%
20% -35.0% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8.570214501836471% → late 3.470559238975944% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses114 / 221
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions15
Markets (closed)335 / 350
History coverage117d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 13¢ 76¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+481%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 33¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 19¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 23¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Under 27¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 27¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 10¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Lucia Bronzetti 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Over 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Wyoming Cowboys (-8.5) Fresno State Bulldogs 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams George Washington Revolutionaries 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Veronika Erjavec 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Leyre Romero Gormaz 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Zdenek Kolar 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5) Penn State Nittany Lions 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +179%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 +$14 +711%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $2 +$3 +151%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$8 +388%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$8 +413%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +365%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $2 7m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 19¢ $2 10m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $6 11m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 20m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 22m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 47m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 10¢ $2 49m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $7 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 67¢ $2 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $2 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $6 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 19¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 11¢ $2 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 34¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 2h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 9¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $2 2h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 28¢ $2 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $2 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.58 · official $29.58 (match) · 526 history records