Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4023…77c1 other 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$531 (-0%) realized −$542 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%348W / 346L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$34
14 days+$113
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$449
other 22% −$163
world 10% −$144
weather 7% −$77
politics 4% −$156
finance 3% −$91
culture 2% −$423
tech 2% −$115
economics 1% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -68.2% -71.2% 14% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 97 -29.4% -36.2% 31% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 199 -19.7% -27.3% 43% 5% -10.0%
all 694 -11.4% -19.9% 50% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -27.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -34.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -40.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$542
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses348 / 346
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)694 / 672
History coverage251d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $294 $306 +$11 (+4%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,854 −$110 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,671 +$67 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,808 +$44 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,461 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $479 +$1 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $39 −$3 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $17 −$2 -15%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 −$3 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,718 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,739 +$48 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$10 +99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,511 +$25 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 09 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $14 −$2 -11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $26 −$4 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $270 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,737 +$46 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $27 −$13 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $11 +$14 +132%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 06 $11 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $23 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $30 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $411 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $406 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $1,140 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $460 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $40 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1,705 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $1,674 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1,632 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $95 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,738 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1,003 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $445 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $15 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $208 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,852 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $195 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $975 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $541 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.68 · official $306.68 (match) · 3347 history records