Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4021…665a other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$16
other 26% −$18
sports 17% −$4
crypto 9% −$9
world 5% −$14
economics 3% −$2
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$9
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 107 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
all 130 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage100d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $91 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $108 −$2 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $276 −$4 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $83 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $146 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -3%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $39 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $375 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 6h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 22h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $44 22h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 26h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $24 27h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 31h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $10 31h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 38h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 39h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 45h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $55 46h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $64 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $66 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.23 · official $42.23 (match) · 466 history records