Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4021…83e5 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$4
other 34% −$2
politics 16% −$1
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 50 -1.1% -10.5% 2% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 50 -1.1% -10.5% 2% 0% -10.2%
all 50 -1.1% -10.5% 2% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? Jun 20 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the thir Jun 13 $16 −$1 -8%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Kasintseva vs. Lepchenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bonzi Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 82¢ $8 43m
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? SELL No 64¢ $3 53m
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 2h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $17 5h
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $17 5h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $14 7h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $14 7h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? SELL No 89¢ $13 7h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? BUY No 89¢ $13 7h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $8 10h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $8 10h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $14 24h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $14 24h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 28h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 28h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 28h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 28h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $27 31h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $27 31h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 23¢ $3 32h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 23¢ $8 32h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 23¢ $9 32h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 23¢ $2 32h
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records