Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4021…1a51 crypto 154 markets active 1d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$113 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%41W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days−$53
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$103
other 31% +$38
crypto 19% −$55
world 9% +$32
politics 4% −$38
tech 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +21.8% +10.2% 43% 43% -7.9%
≤30d 128 -18.2% -26.0% 32% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 128 -18.2% -26.0% 32% 32% -19.2%
all 128 -18.2% -26.0% 32% 32% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 32% -19.2%
10% -33.1% 32% -27.0%
15% -39.5% 30% -34.0%
20% -45.5% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses41 / 87
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions26
Markets (closed)128 / 154
History coverage19d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $10 $56 +$46 (+455%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 40¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 43¢ 45¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 22¢ 2¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $60 −$35 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +240%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$45 +841%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$87 +243%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$12 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$40 +391%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$18 +89%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.22 · official $256.22 (match) · 315 history records