Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4020…4857
crypto · 784 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses521 / 263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)784 / 784
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day820.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 784 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 784 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 64% -12.0%
≤30d 784 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 64% -12.0%
≤90d 784 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 64% -12.0%
all 784 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 64% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover820.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 64% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -20.4%
15% -28.3% 16% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records