Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4020…75bb other 115 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$10
politics 23% −$9
world 14% −$3
sports 11% −$4
economics 9% −$2
finance 7% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 71 -5.3% -14.3% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 113 -3.8% -13.0% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage92d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 12 $113 −$4 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $19 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $30 $0 -1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 11 $0 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $16 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $1 $0 -8%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie Apr 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $395 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $10 −$2 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $352 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $450 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $387 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $460 −$2 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $90 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $1,771 −$2 -0%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 03 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 40¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 44¢ $21 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $18 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $9 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $9 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $7 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 1285 history records