Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x4020…11d1 other 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,281 (+1%) realized +$1,235 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%274W / 124L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$411
7 days+$384
14 days+$384
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$189
politics 20% −$1,680
world 16% +$1,071
economics 13% +$646
crypto 13% +$370
tech 3% +$208
sports 3% +$566
finance 2% +$212
culture 0% +$118
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +24.3% +12.4% 64% 61% +6.9%
≤30d 36 +24.3% +12.4% 64% 61% +6.9%
≤90d 36 +24.3% +12.4% 64% 61% +6.9%
all 398 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 40% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 32% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 22% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$136 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$1,235
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses274 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)398 / 409
History coverage680d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 69¢ 99¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 92¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+99%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 32¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$23 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$12 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $34 +$66 +197%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $81 +$62 +76%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $76 +$74 +97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $71 +$66 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $81 −$80 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 +$29 +29%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $51 −$9 -19%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 −$75 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$14 +54%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$82 +160%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 +$81 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $460 +$40 +9%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Mar 21 $725 +$29 +4%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 08 $8,217 +$68 +1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $7,805 +$214 +3%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $1,183 +$15 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 05 $1,575 −$422 -27%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $1,000 +$71 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Feb 02 $1,104 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Feb 02 $1,960 +$95 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Feb 02 $2,290 +$22 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $200 +$39 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 01 $860 +$140 +16%
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $2,035 +$143 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $753 +$5 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.80 in January? Jan 29 $310 −$288 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $20 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $34 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $15 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $20 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 25h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 25h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 25h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $25 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $26 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $25 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.47 · official $397.33 (match) · 1729 history records