Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x401f…79bf other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
sports 24% −$20
politics 10% −$10
crypto 7% −$7
culture 6% −$6
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$7
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage133d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $716 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $265 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $664 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $402 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $303 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 7h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 9h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $24 19h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 20h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 25h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 37h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 43h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 44h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 45h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 47h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1334 history records