Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x401e…6fc9 world 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$51,138 (+10%) realized +$28,155 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%56W / 11L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$7,116per market
Trades / day211.7pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,797
7 days+$12,392
14 days+$26,261
30 days+$28,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$10,503
politics 30% +$11,702
crypto 23% +$2,135
other 3% +$208
finance 3% +$51
sports 2% +$3,073
tech 1% +$280
culture 0% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +29.6% +17.3% 90% 40% -5.5%
≤30d 67 +21.6% +10.0% 84% 37% -4.3%
≤90d 67 +21.6% +10.0% 84% 37% -4.3%
all 67 +21.6% +10.0% 84% 37% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 37% -4.3%
10% -0.5% 27% -13.5%
15% ← realistic here -10.1% 19% -21.8%
20% -19.0% 15% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$5,055) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$512 vs −$59 · ×8.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.66 per $1 lost it wins $53.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,988
Realized+$28,155
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses56 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions24
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage16d
Avg bet$7,116
Trades / day211.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1,976 $1,973 −$3 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 90¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $83,485 +$3,824 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3,139 +$35 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5,055 +$254 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,025 −$83 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,750 +$251 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $6,068 +$516 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $383 +$42 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,730 +$243 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $8,761 +$519 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $14,343 +$49 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $4,074 +$1,001 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $50,212 +$871 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$7 +121%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $15,903 +$130 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $1,963 +$51 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,412 +$40 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $219 +$31 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,352 +$86 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,530 +$64 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $385 +$40 +10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,076 +$56 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5,110 +$85 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $167 +$69 +41%
Spread: Syria (-2.5) Jun 08 $19 +$53 +276%
Spread: Syria (-1.5) Jun 08 $29 +$24 +84%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $9 +$7 +81%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $71 +$62 +88%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $8,900 +$2,458 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $28,370 +$821 +3%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $430 +$64 +15%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $401 +$67 +17%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $403 −$10 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5,123 +$295 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $247 −$15 -6%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $7 +$8 +127%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,336 +$262 +11%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,099 +$51 +5%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $18 +$20 +110%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $70 +$43 +60%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $40,000 +$10,000 +25%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $371 +$34 +9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $560 −$3 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,907 +$205 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $268 +$109 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$14 -3%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $12 −$9 -74%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $488 −$17 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1,092 +$407 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $724 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $209 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $738 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,642 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $430 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $100 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $248 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 21m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,067 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $655 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $12 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $130 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,572 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $800 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $849 28m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $275 40m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $821 41m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $988 42m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $104 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,458 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $240 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $70 53m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 99¢ $2,170 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $473 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $109 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $431 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $151 54m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $493 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,987.71 · official $1,987.71 (match) · 3500 history records