Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x401e…cff4 crypto 1278 markets active 5d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-4%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%609W / 669L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$366
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -36.4% -42.4% 36% 36% -34.9%
≤30d 768 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 47% -21.2%
≤90d 1261 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 45% -14.8%
all 1278 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 46% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -22.3%
15% -30.7% 38% -29.8%
20% -37.5% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses609 / 669
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1278 / 1278
History coverage109d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1278 Trades
no open positions (496 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 25 $1 +$3 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 25 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $0.00 · 3342 history records