Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x401b…8517 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 31% −$12
sports 15% −$86
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$2
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -7.4% -16.2% 8% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 3% -9.9%
10% -24.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -38.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage132d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $421 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $207 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $406 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $457 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $240 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $479 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $448 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 10h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 22d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $207 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $178 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $178 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $211 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 29d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 29d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $171 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $171 29d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $193 29d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 30d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $168 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 32d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 369 history records