Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x401a…e405 crypto 440 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$592 (+0%) realized +$592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%435W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$816per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$252
14 days+$366
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 3% -8.2%
≤30d 96 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 440 +2.6% -7.1% 99% 1% -9.2%
all 440 +2.6% -7.1% 99% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 1% -9.2%
10% -16.0% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,089) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$764 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses435 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)440 / 440
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$816
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 440 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $415 +$85 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $254 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $376 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $495 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $491 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $415 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $482 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $117 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records