Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4019…4c2a weather 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%141W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$11
crypto 22% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +1.6% -8.0% 95% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 143 -0.9% -10.3% 94% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 143 -0.9% -10.3% 94% 1% -10.4%
all 157 -0.4% -9.9% 90% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -11.2%
10% -18.5% 1% -19.7%
15% -26.4% 1% -27.4%
20% -33.6% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses141 / 16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)157 / 168
History coverage160d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 94¢ 89¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 15? No 100¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 93¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $6 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $6 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL No 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.67 · official $67.00 (match) · 529 history records