Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

40 0x4018…f37e sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$50 (+30%) realized +$88 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+50.4%	+36.0%	57%	57%	+95.3%
≤30d	7	+50.4%	+36.0%	57%	57%	+95.3%
≤90d	7	+50.4%	+36.0%	57%	57%	+95.3%
all	7	+50.4%	+36.0%	57%	57%	+95.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.0%	57%	+95.3%
10%	+23.0%	57%	+76.6%
15%	+11.1%	57%	+59.5%
20%	+0.2%	57%	+43.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$2 · ×15.85 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×21.13 per $1 lost it wins $21.13

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$88

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-19%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner	KT Rolster Challengers	19¢	0¢	$33	$0	−$33 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	KT Rolster Challengers	8¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$51	+$55	+109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	Jun 17	$61	+$89	+145%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner	Jun 15	$4	+$4	+96%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+302%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	3¢	$3	32m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	43¢	$31	42m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$106	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster Challengers	100¢	$150	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	8¢	$5	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	31¢	$20	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	47¢	$41	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	35¢	$20	2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	62¢	$30	2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	21h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner	BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen	14¢	$2	21h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner	BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen	39¢	$3	21h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner	SELL Saigon Warriors	88¢	$8	46h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner	BUY Saigon Warriors	44¢	$4	46h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner	SELL Top Esports Challenger	99¢	$4	47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner	BUY Top Esports Challenger	24¢	$1	47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	41¢	$2	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.49 · official $2.49 (match) · 17 history records