Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4016…4623 crypto 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (382 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,221 (-11%) realized −$3,226 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%405W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day382.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$9,289
other 2% −$29
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (382 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 816 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 909 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 44% -13.2%
≤90d 909 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 44% -13.2%
all 909 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover382.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 44% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 44% -21.5%
15% -32.9% 44% -29.1%
20% -39.4% 44% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$3,226
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses405 / 504
Open positions17
Markets (closed)909 / 900
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day382.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Down 35¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$27 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 35¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.38 · official $421.38 (match) · 3500 history records