Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4015…c724
sports · 157 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$103 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$103 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses86 / 67
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage111d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$31
14 days−$42
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Minnesota Lynx 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Toronto Tempo 54¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
Bicknell vs. Monday: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $6 +$5 +79%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$3 +54%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5) May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 170.5 May 30 $10 +$8 +81%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) May 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $10 +$8 +83%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 May 28 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$104
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 54¢ $3 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) SELL Seattle Storm 100¢ $2 9h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $1 30h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 30h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 30h
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 100¢ $5 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 55¢ $3 3d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $5 3d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $10 3d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 57¢ $3 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 4d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $7 4d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $4 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 5d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 6d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 6d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 57¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $3 8d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-1.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $5 8d
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 8d
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 8d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -25.6% -32.7% 41% 41% -36.3%
≤30d 89 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 51% -14.5%
≤90d 135 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -2.8%
all 153 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 56% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 56% -2.7%
10% -14.7% 56% -12.0%
15% -23.0% 56% -20.5%
20% -30.5% 54% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.68 · official $11.68 (match) · 325 history records