Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x4014…27bf other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,165 (+35%) realized +$1,051 · open +$2,114
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$5,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$788
7 days−$81
14 days+$970
30 days+$970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$3,052
sports 17% +$69
world 1% −$112
crypto 1% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.0% -34.8% 35% 35% -11.2%
≤30d 37 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 46% +6.3%
≤90d 37 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 46% +6.3%
all 37 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 46% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 46% +6.3%
10% -21.7% 46% -3.9%
15% -29.2% 46% -13.2%
20% -36.2% 38% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$99 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5,524
Realized+$1,051
Unrealized+$2,114
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage12d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $2,000 $3,709 +$1,709 (+85%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $500 $908 +$408 (+82%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 60¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 38¢ 36¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$166 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 −$202 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$241 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$126 +62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $475 +$248 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $172 −$172 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $142 +$169 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$72 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$132 +44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$264 +172%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $182 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 38¢ $204 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $253 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $102 22h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $202 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $202 42h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 18¢ $31 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $132 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $142 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $172 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $61 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 6d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $51 7d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $56 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,524.28 · official $5,524.28 (match) · 93 history records