Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4013…d7e4 crypto 1499 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,359 (-4%) realized −$1,359 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%821W / 678L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days−$563
14 days−$722
30 days−$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 44% -32.9%
≤30d 183 -9.3% -18.0% 57% 45% -20.5%
≤90d 767 -12.4% -20.8% 54% 44% -15.5%
all 1499 -8.2% -17.0% 55% 47% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 47% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -24.1%
15% -32.2% 30% -31.4%
20% -38.8% 24% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,359
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses821 / 678
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1499 / 1499
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1499 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$114 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $183 −$172 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$34 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $113 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $114 −$107 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$31 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $64 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records