Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4010…f56d
crypto · 1744 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$885 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$887 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1696 / 138
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1834 / 1744
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day122.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 1834 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$729
7 days−$754
14 days−$884
30 days−$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 32¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+73%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? No 25¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -225%
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -133%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -70%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$171
other 33% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 13m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 28m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 33m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 52m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 774 -11.9% -20.3% 86% 1% -26.7%
≤30d 1834 -5.4% -14.4% 92% 1% -15.9%
≤90d 1834 -5.4% -14.4% 92% 1% -15.9%
all 1834 -5.4% -14.4% 92% 1% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover122.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 1% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 1% -24.0%
15% -30.1% 0% -31.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $4.49 (match) · 3500 history records