Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x400f…c138 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$277 (+32%) realized +$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +38.3% +25.1% 45% 41% +7.6%
≤30d 29 +38.3% +25.1% 45% 41% +7.6%
≤90d 29 +38.3% +25.1% 45% 41% +7.6%
all 29 +38.3% +25.1% 45% 41% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.1% 41% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here +13.2% 41% -2.7%
15% +2.2% 38% -12.1%
20% -7.8% 31% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$19 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$81 +765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $159 −$45 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$22 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$190 +714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$58 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$30 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $58 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records