Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x400d…28af other 3 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$11,597 (+68%) realized +$11,597 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$5,722per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$11,407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.0% +50.1% 67% 67% +50.9%
≤30d 3 +66.0% +50.1% 67% 67% +50.9%
≤90d 3 +66.0% +50.1% 67% 67% +50.9%
all 3 +66.0% +50.1% 67% 67% +50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.1% 67% +50.9%
10% ← realistic here +35.8% 67% +36.4%
15% +22.7% 67% +23.2%
20% +10.6% 67% +11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8,113 vs −$4,820 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5,722
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,892 −$4,820 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,353 +$4,744 +64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,921 +$11,483 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $4,892 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $12,098 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16,403 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,952 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,476 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $493 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $6,618 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $735 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records