Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x400d…e8cd other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
politics 17% −$8
other 8% +$27
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% −$25
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 +0.7% -8.9% 22% 14% -9.4%
all 45 +0.4% -9.1% 24% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 11% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 11% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 11% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage574d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$7 +65%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $46 +$2 +5%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $16 +$7 +46%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 05 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $86 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,536 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $3,005 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 6h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 20h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 22h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 28d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $84 33d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 34d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 34d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 35d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 225 history records