trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 33% | 33% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 30% | 30% | -18.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.6% |
| all | 12 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.2% | 25% | -22.6% |
| 10% | -26.9% | 25% | -30.0% |
| 15% | -34.0% | 17% | -36.8% |
| 20% | -40.5% | 8% | -43.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $4 | −$4 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu | Jun 18 | $12 | −$4 | -33% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$6 | +57% |
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $7 | $0 | -6% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | Jun 18 | $13 | −$3 | -21% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $7 | +$3 | +45% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $14 | −$2 | -14% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $13 | −$13 | -99% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $13 | +$4 | +27% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 02 | $13 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 25 | $14 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 19 | $13 | −$7 | -52% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 19 | $16 | −$2 | -15% |