Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x400c…bc73 crypto 1010 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,344 (-1%) realized −$2,344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate88%889W / 121L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$218
14 days−$310
30 days−$1,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,161
sports 2% +$127
other 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 12% -7.4%
≤30d 650 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 8% -10.8%
≤90d 1010 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 15% -11.3%
all 1010 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 15% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 15% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 7% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.5%
20% -34.9% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$95 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses889 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1010 / 1010
History coverage58d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1010 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2530 history records