Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x400a…3182 politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
other 32% −$4
sports 13% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -17.3% -25.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 73 -2.8% -12.0% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage373d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? May 21 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $1 $0 -20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $203 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $68 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $66 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $135 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 07 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 13 $73 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 -21%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Sep 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $63 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 101d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 103d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 103d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 103d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 104d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 104d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 106d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $68 106d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $68 117d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 121d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 129d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 138d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 142d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 144d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 145d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 146d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 147d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $66 149d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 150d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 151d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records