trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 19 | +8.0% | -2.2% | 53% | 53% | +53.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.2% | 53% | +53.2% |
| 10% | -11.6% | 53% | +38.6% |
| 15% | -20.1% | 53% | +25.2% |
| 20% | -28.0% | 26% | +12.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 48¢ | $296 | $224 | −$71 (-24%) |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $177 | $177 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $114 | $111 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 55¢ | 55¢ | $110 | $109 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 23¢ | 12¢ | $200 | $109 | −$91 (-46%) |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 18 | $200 | −$189 | -95% |
| Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Mar 20 | $4,797 | +$2,034 | +42% |
| Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Mar 18 | $592 | +$248 | +42% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Mar 15 | $2,067 | −$901 | -44% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 | Jan 31 | $20 | +$9 | +46% |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Jan 30 | $100 | +$111 | +111% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jan 26 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Jan 26 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET | Jan 25 | $116 | −$26 | -22% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Jan 24 | $307 | −$307 | -100% |
| Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Jan 24 | $3,162 | +$6,896 | +218% |
| Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 23 | $1,527 | +$2,665 | +175% |
| Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | Jan 22 | $494 | −$494 | -100% |
| Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jan 22 | $56 | +$26 | +46% |
| Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Jan 22 | $2,665 | +$2,259 | +85% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | Jan 22 | $200 | −$105 | -52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET | Jan 21 | $40 | +$23 | +58% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET | Jan 21 | $20 | +$10 | +49% |
| XRP Up or Down - January 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | Jan 21 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |