Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4005…e29d crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-39%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$19
sports 33% −$51
economics 7% −$1
other 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.1% -46.7% 20% 20% -60.0%
≤30d 10 -41.1% -46.7% 20% 20% -60.0%
≤90d 10 -41.1% -46.7% 20% 20% -60.0%
all 10 -41.1% -46.7% 20% 20% -60.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 20% -60.0%
10% -51.8% 20% -63.8%
15% -56.5% 20% -67.3%
20% -60.8% 20% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$20 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.06 · official $9.06 (match) · 19 history records