Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4004…c40b other 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,010 (+3%) realized +$9,761 · open +$16,249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate87%142W / 21L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$4,303per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$386,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$778
7 days+$2,050
14 days+$2,049
30 days+$3,853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$5,521
world 31% +$11,998
sports 31% +$9,916
politics 4% −$1,131
tech 0% +$17
economics 0% +$26
culture 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 5% -8.2%
≤30d 80 -3.3% -12.5% 90% 5% -8.3%
≤90d 155 -1.8% -11.2% 88% 6% -7.5%
all 163 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 6% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 2% -16.8%
15% -28.6% 1% -24.8%
20% -35.6% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$2,318) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$229 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$386,012
Realized+$9,761
Unrealized+$16,249
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses142 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions65
Markets (closed)163 / 228
History coverage161d
Avg bet$4,303
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $103,949 $108,576 +$4,627 (+4%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 91¢ $77,847 $83,221 +$5,374 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $55,160 $55,828 +$668 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $46,571 $48,309 +$1,738 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $24,094 $25,222 +$1,128 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $18,692 $19,608 +$916 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $9,830 $9,955 +$125 (+1%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 97¢ $6,524 $6,569 +$46 (+1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $4,263 $4,575 +$312 (+7%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 81¢ 100¢ $2,837 $3,510 +$673 (+24%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,489 $2,511 +$22 (+1%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,733 $1,743 +$10 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,492 $1,519 +$28 (+2%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $1,378 $1,366 −$12 (-1%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,200 $1,223 +$23 (+2%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $931 $1,011 +$80 (+9%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $976 $995 +$19 (+2%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $928 $963 +$35 (+4%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $952 $959 +$7 (+1%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 83¢ $872 $954 +$82 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $940 $925 −$15 (-2%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 74¢ $522 $617 +$95 (+18%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 91¢ 96¢ $574 $607 +$33 (+6%)
Will BNB reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $578 $601 +$23 (+4%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 58¢ 72¢ $382 $474 +$92 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8,761 +$62 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,222 +$2 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,292 +$128 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $87 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $176 +$6 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16,428 +$499 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,859 +$27 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,023 +$2 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,011 +$47 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,900 +$185 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,184 +$4 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,072 +$108 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $4,926 +$165 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,003 +$98 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26,323 +$456 +2%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $831 +$18 +2%
Will Julian Champagnie score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Dylan Harper score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA F Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $566 +$11 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28,212 +$222 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $116 +$1 +0%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $431 −$129 -30%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $14,600 +$3 +0%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,328 +$4 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $97 −$1 -1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,025 +$65 +6%
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 07 $169 +$19 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $715 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $1,612 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $234 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $648 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $991 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $308 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $988 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386,012.46 · official $386,012.46 (match) · 2445 history records