Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
40 0x4003…f1da sports 64 markets active 17h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,561 (+5%) realized +$1,606 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$307
14 days−$327
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$100
sports 44% +$2,163
politics 8% −$277
world 1% −$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 47% -13.4%
≤30d 36 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 47% -13.5%
≤90d 45 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 47% -13.1%
all 63 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 49% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 49% -5.2%
10% -21.4% 40% -14.2%
15% -29.0% 25% -22.5%
20% -35.9% 13% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$125 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$1,606
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage560d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $53 $8 −$45 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 +$165 +276%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $155 +$53 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,315 +$189 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $462 +$141 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $319 −$319 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $132 +$329 +249%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $355 +$97 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $591 −$591 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $459 +$181 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $106 −$96 -91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $114 −$46 -40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $425 +$137 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $271 +$154 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 +$259 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$248 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $271 +$74 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $278 −$6 -2%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $258 −$254 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $121 +$137 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$127 +262%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $124 −$123 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $67 +$106 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$30 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $239 +$47 +20%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $29 −$28 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) May 16 $203 +$116 +57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $144 +$60 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 10 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $72 +$4 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $233 +$100 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $191 +$42 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $167 +$24 +14%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $91 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $54 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $69 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $81 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 42h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $78 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $92 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $113 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $67 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $19 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $207 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $155 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,504 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,315 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $462 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $462 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $319 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $132 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $452 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $355 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $13 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $93 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $404 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $81 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $85 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.65 · official $7.65 (match) · 213 history records