Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
40 0x4001…3fb3 crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,441 (-7%) realized −$4,432 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%152W / 163L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$5,406
sports 8% −$2,317
world 6% −$1,370
other 2% −$28
tech 2% +$107
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.4% -44.2% 43% 29% -53.9%
≤30d 7 -38.4% -44.2% 43% 29% -53.9%
≤90d 65 -22.9% -30.3% 49% 26% -33.9%
all 315 -15.6% -23.6% 48% 36% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 36% -26.9%
10% -30.9% 29% -33.9%
15% -37.6% 24% -40.3%
20% -43.7% 22% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$96 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$592
Realized−$4,432
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses152 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)315 / 323
History coverage137d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 76¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $924 −$914 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $907 −$34 -4%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$15 +14%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9PM ET May 03 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 03 $575 −$575 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 03 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 03 $680 −$380 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 03 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 03 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 03 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 02 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 02 $77 +$73 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 02 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 02 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 02 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 02 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $188 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 02 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 01 $101 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $206 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9PM ET May 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 01 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 01 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 01 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 30 $306 +$12 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 30 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 30 $25 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 30 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 30 $768 +$64 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $189 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 30 $565 +$54 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 30 $471 +$64 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 30 $553 −$43 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 30 $755 −$153 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 30 $656 +$99 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 30 $420 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 30 $760 −$183 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 30 $328 −$328 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $873 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 62¢ $873 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $907 4d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 4d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $100 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.65 · official $591.65 (match) · 1785 history records