Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fff…6386
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$21 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage41d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $46 +$13 +28%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el May 02 $1 $0 -41%
Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$21
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 91¢ $35 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 59¢ $23 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 36d
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el SELL Yes 30¢ $1 41d
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 49¢ $1 41d
Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 41d
Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +24.1% +12.3% 67% 67% +23.7%
all 3 +24.1% +12.3% 67% 67% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 67% +23.7%
10% +1.5% 67% +11.8%
15% -8.3% 33% +1.0%
20% -17.3% 33% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.20 · official $22.20 (match) · 14 history records